Tailwinds include structural trends, growing US fiscal risk, and the increasing prospect of a second Trump presidency
FIXED INCOME markets have already begun pondering the impact of a Trump presidency, with notable US treasury volatility post-the first presidential debate, and some additional underperformance following the assassination at-tempt on the Republican presidential nominee.
This is because it’s likely that policymaking under a second Trump administration will lean further towards large federal deficits and higher inflation.
By themselves, that would already be significant. However, combined with how that is likely to interact with existing structural trends and key drivers of the US economy in the next cycle—geopolitics, deglobalisation, decarboni-sation, demographics, and technology—here are a number of key risks for investors to consider:
 First, the prospect of higher and more volatile inflation presents an obvious risk to the real value of a portfolio;
 Second, there is the issue of the fiscal sustainability of the US government; and
 Third, geopolitics and elements of de-globalisation are driving trends in de-dollarisation.
In recent years the US has chosen a more protectionist path, coupled with a very loose fiscal stance—all of which will most likely …